The 2014 OPCD Probability Draft

I tend to feel like mock drafts are mostly a waste of time, people (myself included in the past) spend all this time figuring out who teams are going to take only for one trade to scuttle the whole list. So, instead of a mock draft, I'm going to do a Probability Draft. After doing a quick study of what GMs tend to do at the draft table, where they draft from, what they do with first rounders, recent trends, I present to you.

For the sake of clarity, I've broken down the sources as so: OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, US National Team Development Program (Admittedly, they have played in the USHL the last few years, but didn't for the full length of this study, so, for easiness' sake, they are listed separate, NCAA, Tier-2 (Comprising basically any North American junior league that doesn't fit in the other categories: the BCHL, OPJHL, CCHL, NAHL, etc. etc,). For European players, I've referred to them by country alone, as it's just, frankly, much easier. Also note, for the purposes of this study, a player's league is more important than his nationality. So, for instance, Mikkel Boedker is an OHLer, not a Dane; Nino Niedrreiter is a WHLer, not Swiss etc. etc.

THE 2014 NHL PROBABILITY DRAFT!

01. FLORIDA, DALE TALLON: No GM has chosen more players at the NHL draft since the lock-out than Dale Tallon. He has selected a whopping 79 players! Of those 79, 64 of them come from North America. Of his 11 first rounders over that time period, he has chosen a defenceman in the first round just 3 times. He shows no real preference for leagues, having chosen players from 9 different sources (Only WHL and OHL with 2 apiece had more than one player chosen). Overall, in drafting, Dale Tallon has gone to the OHL and Tier-2 junior leagues, a combined 30% of the time. There is no Tier-2 junior player ranked that high, therefore, with the first selection in the NHL draft, Florida chooses SAM BENNETT.

02. BUFFALO, TIM MURRAY: Tim Murray is one of six General Managers who are going into their first NHL draft. Therefore, we have no really accurate read on his drafting tendencies. That said, seeing as he was hired in 2007-2008 by Ottawa and worked closely with his uncle Bryan over that time period, it's likely that his drafting philosophy will, in some respects, mirror that of his father's (Which is useful for me, coincidentally, as I prepared an analysis of Murray's drafting only to remember, too late, that Ottawa doesn't have their first rounder this year!). Over the six years that Tim Murray was part of the Senators organization, the Senators had 7 first rounders. Of those seven first rounders, the Sens went to the OHL three times, WHL twice, and Sweden twice. They had a slight bias towards forwards (4 vs. 3) in the first round, but overall tend to take forwards over twice as often as defenceman. Given all these factors, with the second pick in the 2014 draft, the Buffalo Sabres select SAM REINHART.

03. EDMONTON, CRAIG MACTAVISH: There isn't a huge body of evidence to work from here, as MacTavish has only been at the helm of one draft as Edmonton GM. In that one draft, he chose 10 players, 3 of them coming from the WHL, 2 from the OHL, Tier-2 and Russia. His one first round pick, so far, came from the OHL and given who is available at this point, it's reasonable to suggest he does the same. With the third pick in the 2014 NHL draft, Edmonton selects AARON EKBLAD.

04. CALGARY, BRAD TRELIVING: Like Murray above, Treliving is entering his first draft as an NHL GM. Like Murray, Treliving had been a high-ranking member (Assistant General Manager) since 2008 with Phoenix, so like him we're going to project that Phoenix's drafting lined up with Treliving's philosophies on drafting. Over that period, Phoenix had eight first rounders and went to the OHL three times (Twice for a forward, once for a goalie). Phoenix only went outside North America twice in that period (And once for a Russian player who was mostly based out of California) and took forwards four times, defence three and a goalie once. Phoenix didn't show a particular preference for size over skill (Twice selecting slight skilled forwards (Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker) so with the fourth pick in the 2014 draft, Calgary selects MICHAEL DAL COLLE.

05. NY ISLANDERS, GARTH SNOW: Snow has chosen seven times in the first round in his 7 years on the job. He has never selected a first rounder outside of either the OHL or the WHL. He's picked three WHLers, one forward and two defenders, while going to the OHL four times, selecting two forwards and two defenders. Even though, when looking overall, the Islanders have gone to the OHL a whopping 14 times in 45 picks (A stunning 26% of the time), I'm going to go with recent trends and suggest that, since their last two picks have come from the WHL, and they are likely keeping a close eye on those prospects, that the Isles will return to the WHL and with the fifth pick in the 2014 draft, the NY Islanders select LEON DRAISAITL.

06. VANCOUVER, JIM BENNING: The third neophyte GM in the Top 6, Jim Benning has never helmed a draft, himself, before, but like the others, we will base his tendencies on that of his prior team, the Boston Bruins, where he was named Director of Player Personnel in 2006, but moved up to Assistant GM when Pete Chiarelli was hired. Throughout Chiarelli's tenure and, consequently, Benning's, the Bruins preferred forwards overwhelmingly, taking four of them with their six first rounders. The Bruins drafted three players out of the OHL, but one was a defenceman and the other a goalie. They also went to the WHL, QMJHL and Tier-2 once in that time span, but never once chose a first rounder from outside North America. The Bruins also had a habit of drafting large forwards over this time span, only Zach Hamill (who did not pan out) every other first rounder was over 6'1" in heigh. Given these factors, the Vancouver Canucks, with the sixth selection in the NHL draft, choose JAKE VIRTANEN.

07. CAROLINA, RON FRANCIS: And...a fourth GM in the Top 7 who has never made a selection before. Francis has been a member of the Hurricanes front office since 2006, so we'll just assume his philosophies dovetail with those of departed GM Jim Rutherford, and work from there. Carolina over Francis' tenure, had six first rounders, two of them coming from the OHL, two from the WHL and one each from Sweden and the QMJHL. Given their like of the OHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, with the seventh pick in the draft select NICK RITCHIE.

08. TORONTO, DAVE NONIS: Nonis has helmed four drafts since the lock-out, three with the Canucks (from 2005-2007) and one with the Leafs (the 2013 draft). In those four drafts, he had first rounder in each of them without any real prefences being shown, he chose a forward from the USHL, a forward from the WHL, a forward from the QMJHL and a defenceman from the QMJHL. With his Canuck selections, he showed an emphasis on skill over size, but chose a very big forward with Toronto's pick last summer. Overall, Nonis has shown a solid bias for North American players over European ones (15 from North America, just seven from Euope). That said, the Leafs have shown a predilection for Swedes outside the first round, taking six over their last four drafts. For that fact, the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the eight pick, choose WILLIAM NYLANDER.

09. WINNIPEG, KEVIN CHEVELDAYOFF: Cheveldayoff has been in charge of three Winnipeg drafts, so far. His three first rounders have never been outside of North America, with one each from the WHL, OHL and the US National Team Development Program. The Jets have only drafted 1 player from outside North America in 23 picks, so far and are heavy drafters of defenceman (Of 18 skaters drafted, 10 have been forwards with 8 defencemen). Another factor to look at, is Winnipeg's penchant for drafting from the WHL, 29% of their draftec players were based out of the WHL. Therefore, with the ninth selection in the NHL Draft, the Winnipeg Jets select HAYDN FLEURY.

10. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: Murray has chosen seven first rounders over his five NHL drafts. Of his first five first rounders, 4 of them were forwards, but recently he's taken defencemen in the first round of the last two drafts. He's shown a preference to draft from the OHL, with 3 of those seven first rounders being out of the OHL. Overall, he tends to go overwhelmingly with OHLers and players from Sweden, with 37 of his picks drawing from those two talent pools. Given he has selected d-men with his last two picks and could probably use a forward, and his penchant for going to the OHL and reluctance to go to the QMJHL (No first rounders and just two players drafted total from the QMJHL in five years!), with the tenth pick of the 2014 draft, the Anaheim Ducks select BRENDAN PERLINI.

11. NASHVILLE, DAVID POILE: Poile has taken 7 players in the first round since the lock-out, with an even split of three forwards, three defencemen and one goalie. He has a penchant for drafting from the OHL, three of his seven picks have been out of the OHL and two out of the WHL, with a pick out of the NCAA being the lone non-OHL/WHLer. Poile has actually gone to Europe for 32 out of his 70 picks, but has never chosen a player out of Europe in his tenure, thus far. Poile sticks with the OHL here and with the 11th choice in the 2014 Draft, selects JARED MCANN.

12. PHOENIX, DON MALONEY: Maloney's demonstrated no real pattern to his picks over the years, spreading his 10 picks as Coyotes GM across the OHL (1F, 1D, 1G), WHL (1F, 1D), USNDTP (D), SWE (F), RUS (F), Tier-2 (F) and QMJHL (D). He's shown a real interest in picking highly-skilled forwards, regardless of size, like Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker, which makes him the perfect candidate to select, with the twelfth overall pick, NIKOLAJ EHLERS.

13. WASHINGTON, BRIAN MACLELLAN: MacLellan's first draft as the GM, we'll presume, likely won't be a massive change of direction from George McPhee's lengthy tenure, as MacLellan apprenticed under the former Capitals GM. Washington has had 12 first round picks since the lock-out, with 5 of them being Swedish forwards and two being Russians, a goalie and forward and two being from the USHL. Washington has also hit a variety of other leagues - OHL, WHL, NCAA - but never more than once. It would seem likely that Washington would be very interested in a Swedish forward with their pick, and I'm going to say they will go there, but for a Swiss forward, playing in Sweden, and select with the thirteenth pick KEVIN FIALA.

14. DALLAS, JIM NILL: Nill has only run one draft as Dallas' GM, last year, in which he selected 9 picks. One-third of those picks were OHL forwards and only two of them being defencemen, both from Europe (Finland and Sweden). Nill sticks with what he likes, OHL forwards, and with the fourteenth pick of the 2014 draft selects ROBBIE FABBRI.

15. DETROIT, KEN HOLLAND: Detroit has a reputation for drafting out of Sweden, and it's much deserved, 22% of their 64 draft picks since the lock-out have been from Sweden. Interestingly, though, of their five first rounders since the end of the lock-out, Detroit has never gone outside of North America once in the first round. With many of their prospects maturing and pushing for roster spots, along with a bunch more on the way, Detroit can afford to wait a little bit longer for a pick and two of their five first rounders have been from the American development system, and Detroit will go their instead making their pick the fast-rising ALEX TUCH

16. COLUMBUS, JARMO KEKALAINEN: Entering just his second draft with the Blue Jackets, Kekalainen has shown a desire to draft all over the place, taking two from the OHL, two from the WHL, two from Sweden and one each from the USHL, and Russia, and none from Finland after every mock draft figured Kekalainen, of Finnish heritage, would be drafting every Finn that came down the pike. Kekalainen will go back to the WHL here, and with the sixteenth pick, Columbus selects JULIUS HONKA.

17. PHILADELPHIA, RON HEXTALL: Hextall is a tough read, because he's come up through LA's system, but then was hired by Philadelphia for the past two years and promoted to GM this year, thus it's hard to indicate his tendencies in drafting. This is his first draft as GM, and there's one thing he's probably learned as with both organizations: size matters. With the seventeeth pick, the Philadelphia Flyers choose DYLAN LARKIN.

18. MINNESOTA, CHUCK FLETCHER: Fletcher's five first rounders as Minnesota GM have seen him hit up the WHL, QMJHL and US High Schools once each, but he's also shown a lack of fear in selecting a European in the first round, nabbing a player from Sweden and another from Finland. He's also fairly even in positional drafting, twice selecting forwards and choosing three defenders in the first round. Fletcher's not afraid to go back to Europe here, and selects KASPERI KAPANEN of Finland.

19. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: One think Steve Yzerman has demonstrated above all else in his four drafts in charge of the Tampa Bay Lightning is that he's unafraid of going to Russia, even as many GMs shy away from the country. In fact, in his last three drafts, Yzerman has drafted 5 players from out of the Russian leagues. There aren't any Russians ranked high enough here for Yzerman's liking, but there is a couple playing in North America. Given he's also shown an affinity for the QMJHL (Drafted 5 of his 28 players from there), with the nineteenth pick in the 2014 Draft, Tampa Bay selects IVAN BARBASHEV.

20. SAN JOE, DOUG WILSON: Wilson enters his 10th draft since the lock-out with maybe a different mindset this year as he's just stated that San Jose will be going through a bit of a rebuild. Of his six first-rounders, Wilson has hit up the WHL three different times. Here's betting he goes back there again and with the twentieth pick of the 2014 draft, selects TRAVIS SANHEIM.

21. ST. LOUIS, DOUG ARMSTRONG: This is Armstrong's sixth draft since the lock-out, but only his third with the Blues. During those six drafts, he's only had a first rounder three times and it wouldn't be a shock if he didn't have one come this Friday. Should he keep the pick, however, chances are it would be out of the US development system as two of his first rounders came from there, and 13 of his 40 picks were from said system. Armstrong goes back there, and with the twenty-first pick of the 2014 draft selects SONNY MILANO.

22. PITTSBURGH, JIM RUTHERFORD: A lot speculation that this pick might be moved by new GM Jim Rutherford, who is looking to add a roster player in return (Maybe Buffalo could be a match?). But, we're not trading picks here and acting on the assumption that Rutherford keeps his first rounder in his first draft as Pittsburgh's GM, Rutherford has previously shown an affinity for drafting out of the OHL, as 17 of his 58 picks were from the Ontario league. Given that the majority of the incoming prospects in Pittsburgh's system are defenders, coupled with the affinity for the OHL, Pittsburgh opts for skill and with the twenty-second pick of the first round selects JOSH HO-SANG.

23. COLORADO, GREG SHERMAN: There's some dispute over just how much control Sherman currently has over the Avalanche and the Colorado draft table with Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy also have roles in the team's hockey operations, but we're not here to argue that and we'll just assume Sherman has the final call and go off of the team's drafting history with him as GM. Throughout his run as Colorado GM, Sherman has chosen in the first round five times and three of those picks were out of the OHL. Colorado has drafted forwards twice as often as defencemen, but with their system crying out for a defender here, with the twenty-third pick of the 2014 draft, Colorado selects ROLAND MCKEOWN.

24. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: We've covered Murray earlier and mentioned his penchant for Swedes which is why he goes there with the twenty-fourth pick, choosing the Czech player playing in Sweden, ADRIAN KEMPE.

25. BOSTON, PETE CHIARELLI: Since taking over as Bruins GM in 2007 (Technically he was hired in 2006 but was not allowed to act as GM WITH Boston until after the draft and beginning of free agency), over the last seven drafts, Pete Chiarelli has had a first rounder 6 out of 7 times and has chosen that first rounder every time from North America. Over the last stretch Boston has loved the OHL, going there for its last three first rounders (In addition to 5 other OHL players selected during that time) and GM Pete Chiarelli likes bloodlines (Malcolm Subban, Jim Benning, Ryan Fitzgerald, Jamie Arniel, and Lane MacDermid), so Boston goes with both, so for the twenty-fifth pick of the 2014 draft, Boston selects BRENDAN LEMIEUX.

26. MONTREAL, MARC BERGEVIN: This will be Marc Bergevin's third draft as GM of Montreal which is weird, to me, as it feels like he was just hired recently. While it's still too early to form a solid feeling on what type of players Bergevin trends towards, there are some hints. For one, he really likes players out of the QMJHL, going there for one-third of the Canadiens picks during his tenure (5 altogether) but he's also never drafted a QMJHL player in the first round. He's also been unafraid of going to Europe for picks (4) but, again, has never taken one in the first round. His last two picks have been forwards, one from the OHL and one from the USNDTP, which I think will have him thinking defence this time around, Montreal has a penchant for hitting the US developmental system, so their choice will be, with the twenty-sixth pick of the NHL Draft, JACK DOUHGERTY.

27. CHICAGO, STAN BOWMAN: This will be Bowman's fifth draft as Chicago GM and he's established a fair number of patterns. For one, he's not afraid to go to Europe, but he's 7 of the 10 players he's picked out of Europe have come from Sweden. He's also a big fan of the OHL and USNDTP with 5 choices each coming from those leagues, but interestingly enough all five of the OHLers are forwards. In the first round, every time, with all five first rounders, Bowman has gone with a forward. Here's to betting that trend continues and with the twenty-seventh pick in the 2014 draft, Chicago selects NICK SCHMALTZ.

28. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: In his four previous drafts, Yzerman has drafted 3 players from the WHL, I think he follows that trend and with the twenty-eight pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Tampa Bay selects CONNOR BLEACKLEY.

29. LOS ANGELES, DEAN LOMBARDI: Lombradi has gone to the CHL for 38 of his 62 draft picks as Kings GM, with the OHL (18) and WHL (12) his most frequent targets. His first rounders seem to come overwhelmingly from the WHL with three of his eight first rounders coming from there. With that in mind, and the fact the he drafts forwards at a 2:1 ratio overall, with the twenty-ninth pick of the 2014 Draft, the LA Kings select NIKITA SCHERBAK.

30. NEW JERSEY, LOU LAMIORELLO: One league stands alone when it comes to Devils GM Lou Lamiorello, and it's the OHL. He has drafted out of the OHL with 5 more picks than the next closest source for a grand total of 13 picks. Oddly, only once has he drafted a first round pick out of the OHL, despite those totals, but he has taken 4 players from Sweden in the first round. And, to an extent, every one of those picks from Sweden has been a bit of a disappointment, thus far. So, Lamiorello, with a pick he wasn't supposed to have, goes back to his comfort zone of the OHL and takes a swing for the fences with a talented player with attitude issues and with the thirtieth pick of the 2014 NHL Draft, New Jersey selects ANTHONY DEANGELO.